Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup — Brookings

Describes APC as a fragile anti-Jonathan setup
BROOKINGS, the world’s most influential think-tank based in the
United States, have projected President Goodluck Jonathan’s
victory over the opposition candidate, General Muhammadu
Buhari, in the February presidential election, which it suggests
would be keenly contested.
The analysis, context and rationale of the think-tank’s projections
were contained in the Brookings publication entitled: Foresight
Africa – Top Priorities for the continent (January 2015).
“ Though the election is expected to be very competitive, the odds
still favour President Jonathan.”
According to Brookings, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a
fragile anti-Jonathan establishment with a sole purpose to return
power to the north.
“The party is, however, a fragile one that seems united only in its
quest to wrest the presidency from Jonathan or to have power
“returned” to the north.”
“The APC gets much of its strength from tapping into anti-
Jonathan sentiments in the Muslim north and grievances among
the Yoruba who feel that the Jonathan administration has ignored
them in key political appointments.”
The report also indicated that “the APC’s strategy is hinged on a
combination of popular votes from the North-West, North-East and
“the battleground South-West” but also hinted at the possibility of
Bola Ahmed Tinubu not delivering the region contrary to
speculations.
“What remains to be seen, however, is whether Bola Tinubu, a
former governor of Lagos State who played a pivotal role in the
formation of the APC and is considered to be the party’s strongest
mobiliser in the South-West, will be very enthusiastic in delivering
the battleground South-West to the APC during the elections.”
“Tinubu indicated his interest in being the party’s vice presidential
candidate but being a Muslim like Buhari, the party’s strategists
felt that a Muslim-Muslim ticket might offend Christians and
cement the PDP’s labelling of the APC as an Islamic party.”
[/size]On President Jonathan’s performance: “despite Boko
Haram, the country is thriving: The economy continues to grow
and with the re-basing of its GDP, became the largest economy in
Africa and the 26th largest in the world. Jonathan’s supporters
also point to his success in containing the Ebola virus, which
earned him commendations from countries and institutions around
the world.”
The Brookings report also identified factors such as incumbency
and numerical control of states where PDP has 21 states and APC
only 14 as giving PDP an edge.
“The greatest strength of the ruling PDP is its “power of
incumbency,” and all the institutional support that goes with it.
Not only does it have federal resources to use as patronage, it
also controls key institutions.”
The report advised that all efforts should be deployed to ensure a
free, fair and transparent elections and to avoid a meltdown as
post-election violence seems very likely.
“ Post-election violence is therefore likely in the north if the APC
loses while renewed militancy in the restive Niger Delta is likely if
Jonathan does,” the report noted.