Sunday, January 18, 2015

3 predictions for the future of jobs

As participants at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in
Davos contemplate the “new global context”, the emerging global
shifts identified by the Global Strategic Foresight Community
(GFSC) can be referenced to provide fresh perspectives on the
future of jobs.
In current narratives on the coming era of employment, we often
come across fears of a future in which permanent jobs will fade
away and machines increasingly perform cognitive jobs in place
of people, forcing automation and, as a result, unemployment
across the employment spectrum – including high-skilled and
white-collar labour. Such scenarios are highlighted by several
GSFC members (Francisco Sagasti, Claudia Juech , Jill Wong ,
Nouriel Roubini).
However, there are other narratives relating to the future of jobs
suggested by the members:
A coming age of entrepreneurship: Advances in technology will
make self-generated livelihoods increasingly more viable
Francisco Sagasti argues that the future is likely to see “a
growing proportion of individual or small-group entrepreneurs
among the younger generations, as the ‘zero marginal cost’ and
‘sharing’ economy increases the possibilities for ‘self-generated’
livelihoods”. Julius Gatune demonstrates that we already see
signs in Africa that “ICT platforms could … revolutionize the
informal economy … both by enabling new business models and
by putting traditionally informal activities on a more formal
footing” and “opening up opportunities for entrepreneurs to scale
up their businesses”.
Retire first, work later? In the future, our work-life duality patterns
may change substantially
Kristel Van der Elst suggests that if humans not only live longer
but also remain healthy, we might come to rethink the
organization of our work lives, perhaps shifting our lifespan view
from a “study-then-work-then-retire-then-expire” model to one
more flexibly fragmented. We might come to take “free time”
moments at other points in life rather than as a block towards
the end.
The new jobs robots can’t take: We will soon see a plethora of
jobs that currently do not exist
Peter Schwartz argues that today we are in a transitional stage
between technological leaps. He says: “current research in areas
such as ICT and big data, biological and molecular engineering”,
as well as man coming to understand gravity, “will create vast
new technologies and whole new industries”. Stefan Hajkowicz
sees great potential in the creative-services economy to reduce
youth unemployment and poverty, as “future developments in
communications technology – from telepresence systems to
virtual reality, voice recognition and artificial intelligence – are
likely to further expand the creative economy by enabling the
evolution of entirely new kinds of creative services”. Trudpert
Schelb considers how the increasing demand for
individualization ushered by the rise of 3D printing is set to
revolutionize the production and distribution of physical goods,
thereby facilitating a DIY economy.
Contemplating these alternative, yet plausible, futures is
important because it helps us prepare for the changes ahead and
allows us to shape the future. For example, if the perspectives
outlined above do prove to contain some of the pertinent
elements of the future of jobs, many societal systems, such as
education, economic/social safety nets and pension systems,
will require considerable rethinking. Additionally, efforts towards
supporting everyone’s ability to live meaningful lives will
necessitate significant increases in entrepreneurship and social
innovation.
With such needs in mind, we should begin devising the systems
that will support these global shifts and enable them to be a
positive improvement for the state of the world.

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